Influence of error terms in Bayesian calibration of energy system models

Calibration represents a crucial step in the modelling process to obtain accurate simulation results and quantify uncertainties. We scrutinise the statistical Kennedy & O’Hagan framework, which quantifies different sources of uncertainty in the calibration process, including both model inputs and errors in the model. In specific, we evaluate the influence of error terms on the posterior predictions of calibrated model inputs. We do so by using a simulation model of a heat pump in cooling mode. While posterior values of many parameters concur with the expectations, some parameters appear not to be inferable. This is particularly true for parameters associated with model discrepancy, for which prior knowledge is typically scarce. We reveal the importance of assessing the identifiability of parameters by exploring the dependency of posteriors on the assigned prior knowledge. Analyses with random datasets show that results are overall consistent, which confirms the applicability and reliability of the framework

Investigating an Adequate Level of Modelling for Energy Analysis of Domestic Buildings

This paper investigates what level of modelling is required to appropriately support energy analysis of domestic buildings. The paper analyses the effect of simplications made in thermal zoning and internal loads scheduling through a case study of a UK domestic building. The case study provides quantified effects of common simplications made in practice on the accuracy of energy predictions by making simplications in the model incrementally and estimating the effect of individual simplications on electricity and heating demand predictions

Investigating an adequate level of modelling for retrofit decision-making: A case study of a British semi-detached house

This paper investigates what level of modelling (zoning or internal load scheduling) is required to support heating related retrofit decision-making. First, this paper tests the effect of thermal zoning by incrementally reducing the number of thermal zones from modelling every room as a separate zone to modelling the house as a single zone. Second, this paper examines the influence of internal load schedules (occupancy, lighting and equipment schedules) on prediction accuracy. Actual internal load schedules were derived from the smart meter data of 666 households collected by the Customer-Led Network Revolution project. Cluster analysis was applied to extract a set of prototypical schedules to capture major variations across all households. Last, this paper evaluates the effects of the zoning and internal load scheduling modelling assumptions in the context of thermal retrofit decision-making. For the specific parameters studied and the specific building design, the use of different zoning strategies and different internal load schedules yielded the same ranking of top retrofit options. For the specific climate and the baseline assumptions for the retrofits, different cluster schedules resulted in different magnitudes of energy savings, but the ranking of top retrofit options was not impacted by the choice of household internal load schedules. However, the actual internal load schedules affected the energy-saving potentials achievable by the same set of retrofit options. The case study highlights that the optimal set of retrofit options selected given the specific physical characteristics of a house is the same regardless of differences in the input of internal load schedules. However, it was found that energy-saving potentials achievable by the same retrofit option substantially vary according to the actual internal load schedules. This finding implies that energy retrofit policies can be tailored to target certain groups of households selected by clustering their actual energy use profiles to cost-effectively maximise energy savings from the domestic sector

An Examination of Motivation and Identification of Football Fans

This study examined the fans motivation to attend the National Football League (NFL) games and how it relates to fan identification. Data from 158 fans who attended regular season games in a Midwestern city in the United States were analyzed using regression to determine the degree to which fan identification could be explained by motivation factors. It was found that self-esteem, entertainment, escape, and eustress explained 40.1% of the variance in fan identification. Understanding that fans have different levels of identification and different types of motivations will enable sport marketers can better tailor strategies to more effectively reach target markets

An Examination of Motivation and Identification of Football Fans

This study examined the fans motivation to attend the National Football League (NFL) games and how it relates to fan identification. Data from 158 fans who attended regular season games in a Midwestern city in the United States were analyzed using regression to determine the degree to which fan identification could be explained by motivation factors. It was found that self-esteem, entertainment, escape, and eustress explained 40.1% of the variance in fan identification. Understanding that fans have different levels of identification and different types of motivations will enable sport marketers can better tailor strategies to more effectively reach target markets

Cloning and Functional Analysis of three Cold Regulated <em>CBF</em> Genes in the Overwintering Crucifer <em>Boechera stricta</em>

In this research, we isolated three CBF (C-repeat-Binding Factors) genes from two genotypes of Boechera stricta with contrasting freezing tolerance and characterized their structure and expression patterns in response to cold treatment. An amino acid sequence comparison revealed that the CBF genes in B. stricta showed high conservation in the AP2 domain and PKKP/RAGR motif like other cold adaptable Brassicaceae. The pairwise sequence alignment of the CBF genes isolated from two genotypes of B. stricta showed non-synonymous mutations in CBF 2 and 3. Gene expression analysis demonstrated that CBF genes in B. stricta have expression patterns similar to CBFs in A. thaliana in response to cold treatment, while differential expression at the molecular level in CBF and COR genes was presented between two genotypes of B. stricta. Our results suggest that signal transduction of three CBF genes can be one of the central pathways in the development of freezing tolerance in B. stricta

Revisiting the Role of TGFβ Receptor Internalization for Smad Signaling: It is Not Required in Optogenetic TGFβ Signaling Systems

Endocytosis is an important process by which many signaling receptors reach their intracellular effectors. Accumulating evidence suggests that internalized receptors play critical roles in triggering cellular signaling, including transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) signaling. Despite intensive studies on the TGFβ pathway over the last decades, the necessity of TGFβ receptor endocytosis for downstream TGFβ signaling responses is a subject of debate. In this study, mathematical modeling and synthetic biology approaches are combined to re-evaluate whether TGFβ receptor internalization is indispensable for inducing Smad signaling. It is found that optogenetic systems with plasma membrane-tethered TGFβ receptors can induce fast and sustained Smad2 activation upon light stimulations. Modeling analysis suggests that endocytosis is precluded for the membrane-anchored optogenetic TGFβ receptors. Therefore, this study provides new evidence to support that TGFβ receptor internalization is not required for Smad2 activation